As seems to be a biennial tradition here on this blog, it falls to me, with the call of the 2008 federal election, to organize a pool for the Canadian political blogosphere to guess the results. So I invite everyone again — Liberal or Tory, New Democrat or Green, Bloquiste or Undecided — to guess the outcome of the vote on October 14. Participants get to strut their prescient stuff, and play for the possibility of receiving fabulous (maybe) prizes.
We had a lot of fun with the election pools of 2004 and 2006, and part of the reason, I’m sure, is that it’s easy to play. Simply guess the results of the 2008 election to the best of your ability. Leave a comment below saying how many seats you think each party will receive, whether or not the Greens have a seat (and how many) and how many independents are elected. Also guess what you think will be the voter turnout by percent.
The twist is that this pool is designed to reward those who guess early. It’s no fun making your prediction on the day that the polls close. I want bold stuff, here. I want to reward the person who called the results of the election on the day it was called. So, as with the previous two election pools, this contest will be conducted in two phases, and everybody who participates will get two chances to predict the results.
Phase one begins today with the Governor General’s decision to dissolve parliament. Place your prediction in the comments section below, and please pick a name for yourself that allows me to easily identify you. Please post an e-mail address that I can reach you at in the proper field; I promise that no e-mails will be sold or otherwise misused by me. This makes it easier for me to tally the results, and to contact you to send you your prize should you win. Then, effective 12:01 a.m. on October 1st, or at the end of closing comments at the final leaders’ debate, whichever is later, phase two begins, where people will be allowed to assess the campaign so far and revise their prediction.
Some of you will decide to say “let it ride”, so that your first round prediction becomes your second round prediction. You will have my profound respect for your brazen choices. Some of you will come up with a new prediction. You will be scored on a combination of how your two predictions perform. Some of you will make your prediction for the first time in phase two, and that’s fine, but you will have to overcome a handicap which limits the advantage that late players have over those who courageously make their guesses early.
So, with all that in mind, please make your predictions below in the comments section of this post. List the parties you think will win seats in this election and how many seats they’ll win. The number should total 308. For the purposes of scoring this contest, independent candidates are considered to belong to an “Independents” party. For example, I will now list my prediction below:
Conservatives: 134
Liberals: 105
Bloc Quebecois: 45
New Democrats: 21
Greens: 2
Independents: 1Voter Turnout: 60%
How the entries are scored:
I thought we were quite successful with the scoring method used in the 2006 election, so I’m recycling that method here. You will be scored as follows: each entrant will start with 500 points and will lose a point for every seat per party they are off based on the final results as they appear at noon, Eastern Daylight Time, on Wednesday, October 15, 2008 (the day after the election). Each entrant will also lose twenty-five points for each incorrect position of party placement. If you say that independent candidates will obtain seats and none do, that’s a twenty-five point penalty. If you say that the Green Party does NOT obtain seats and they do, that’s also a twenty-five point penalty.
And those who wait until phase two to make their predictions are still welcome to make their predictions. They will, however, have to overcome a 100 point penalty for failing to participate in round one. Those who participate in phase one but don’t participate in phase two will be deemed to have elected to “let it ride”, so their phase one guess also becomes their phase two guess. Participants from phase one can explicitly tell me to “let it ride”.
Finally, fifty bonus points will be awarded to the individual who comes the closest to predicting the turnout of the coming election, without going over. Please use whole numbers only in predicting. So, if a person predicts 58% and another predicts 59%, and the turnout is 58.7%, the person who predicted a 58% turnout gets the extra points. Ties get the 50 bonus points divided up.
The individual with the most points wins, with special honours awarded to the individual who comes the closest, among the two guesses, to guessing the final correct seat totals.
What Are You Playing For?
My resources are limited so, for now, the top five finishers plus the special honours award winner will receive a copy of my upcoming novel, The Young City, when it comes out this January. You will also have the honour of being able to boast to your friends and family how good a political psychic you are.
If anybody would like to donate more prizes to this little endeavour, to make it more interesting, please contact me at the e-mail link on the bottom of the column on the right.
P.S.: In case my comments start acting up, if your prediction doesn’t appear on this website within twelve hours, please e-mail me right away so I can look into the spam filter. My e-mail address is james dot bow at gmail dot com.
Other Contests for 2008
Don at the venerable blog Revolutionary Moderation is relaunching his Gaffe-o-Meter contest, allowing people to predict how many gaffes each party will make this coming election, and how serious these gaffes will be. The full rules are available at his blog site, and I encourage you all to participate. You can’t have too many contests to spice up an otherwise boring campaign, now, can you?
Conservative arrogance and Dion’s surprisingly effective advocacy of the carbon tax will allow Dion to pick up votes of disaffected independents and young people, inspired to try and change things by Obama’s message in the U.S. As he rises in the polls, the BQ’s who’s become irrelevant will see their voters defect, and the NDP will see their voters defect as they go for the party that could actually win. The Greens, outmanoeuvred by Dion on the environment, will fall back to zero seats. Voter turnout will rise on the back of the in-fluxing young voters.
Conservatives will still do well on the back of Harper’s leadership and record, and on worries that the carbon tax will hurt the economy, but the consolidating left vote will be enough for Dion to eek out a plurality.
Liberals: 135
Conservatives: 124
Bloc Quebecois: 34
New Democrats: 14
Greens: 0
Independents: 1
Voter Turnout: 68%
Liberals: 121
Conservatives: 116
Bloc Quebecois: 45
New Democrats: 25
Greens: 0
Independents: 1
Voter Turnout: 55%
CPC 153
Lib 89
BQ 36
NDP 28
Ind 2
Grn 0
Turnout: 58%
CPC: 140
Liberal: 107
NDP: 27
Bloc: 32
Ind: 2 Green: 0
“Venerable”, eh? Sure, given my infrequency of late, I’ll claim age. “Blogger Emeritus”? Maybe too much.
Tory: 142
Grit: 109
BQ: 44
NDP: 22
Independent: 1
And Harper gets the sort of minority he’d like, where he can pick which party to play ball with issue by issue.
Turnout: 51%.
Tories: 140
Liberals: 86
BQ: 41
NDP: 40
Ind: 1
Other: 0
Turnout: 53%
Liberals: 112
Conservatives: 110
Bloc Quebecois: 41
New Democrats: 45
Greens: 0
Independents: 1
Voter Turnout: 65%
Liberals: 129
Conservatives: 110
BQ: 37
NDP: 31
Ind: 1
Voter Turnout: 64%
Conservatives: 118
Liberals: 109
Bloc Quebecois: 48
New Democrats: 33
Greens: 0
Independents: 0
Voter Turnout: 57%
CPC 154
LIB 80
BQ 40
NDP 31
IND 1
GRN 0
Turnout 60%
Conservatives: 127
Liberals: 121
Bloc Quebecois: 40
New Democrats: 18
Greens: 1
Independents: 1
Voter Turnout: 62%
The Canadian people will get it right, sending Harper a message: you’re lucky to be up against Dion, we want real progress on the environment and we want out of Afghanistan. This is your last chance because next time around (again in 2 years or less) the Liberals will have a solid alternative.
CPC: 142
LPC: 85
BQ: 44
NDP: 36
Ind: 1
Grn: 0
Turnout: 61%
Conservatives - 145
Liberals - 90
Bloc - 38
NDP - 34
Independent - 1 (Casey)
Green - 0
Turnout: 54%
Rhino = 160
Conservative = 69
Liberal = 41
Bloc Quebecois = 19
New Democrats = 17
Green = 2
Independents/Other = 0
Voter Turnout = 79%
Somebody had to do it.
(heh! —jb)
Conservatives: 120
Liberals: 118
Bloc Quebecois: 45
New Democrats: 23
Greens: 1
Independents: 1
Conservatives: 152
Liberals: 86
Bloc Quebecois: 35
New Democrats: 33
Independents: 2
Greens: 0
Voter Turnout: 55%
If this happens, I’d wager 3-4 Libs/Bloc/IND cross the floor to give Harper a majority.
Conservatives: 144
Liberals: 88
Bloc: 40
NDP: 35
Ind: 1
(Greens: 0 —jb)
Turnout: 62%
Conservative Majority
Conservatives 165
Liberals 55
Dippers 53
Bloqheads 35
Greens 0 nothing zip zilch nada
(no independents either —jb)
(GF left second comment to add: Turnout: 61% —jb)
I KNOW this is out on the edge, here’s the rationale -
Excepting Toronto and Quebec, Jack Layton’s strategy of deeming the liberals has resonance. Look for support to grow in non-GTA cities in Ontario and the maritimes as well as BC and Possibly Manitoba.
The Liberals are close to repeating the mistakes of Kim Campbell and a collapse is not out of the question. Especially if the Dippers can run strong which I think they can.
Bloq losses equal conservative gains and maybe drag some Ontario seats along as well as BC.
Hey it’s nuts but as James says anyone can predict on election night, here is an EARLY peak at that.
Conservative: 142
Liberal: 90
Bloc Quebecois: 38
NDP: 36
Independant:2 (Bll Casey, and Andre Arthur)
Green:0
CPC 165
Glib 91 NDP 31
Block 20
Ind 1
Turnout = 63%
Greens get all the rest
(that would be zero —jb)
I don’t want your book, donate any prize to your local CPC riding association.
Conservatives: 140
Liberals: 100
Bloc Quebecois: 44
New Democrats: 21
Greens: 2
Independents: 1
Voter Turnout: 62%
Conservatives — 138
Liberals — 79
NDP — 48
BQ — 39
Greens — 2
Independents — 2
Turnout — 64%
CPC 158 (NL-2, NS+1, NB+1, QC+26, ON+6, MB+2)
Lib 92 (NL+2, NS-1, NB-1, QC-5, ON-4, MB-2)
NDP 27 (ON-2)
Bloc 31 (QC-20)
Independent 0 (QC-1)
(Green 0)
CPC 160
LPC 79
Bloc 37
NDP 30
Ind 2
Green 0
Turnout 62%
Conservatives 150
Liberals 88
Bloc 40
NDP 30
Greens 0
Ind 0
Turnout 49%
cons 150
libs 88
bloc 36
ndp 32
indi 2
greens 0
turn out 66%
CPC 163
LIB 70
BQ 40
NDP 30
IND 2
GRN 0
Turnout: 67%
Libs, NDP & Greens fall victim to vote splitting, with the libs reduced to Toronto, Montreal, and a smattering in the north & Newfoundland. Tories steal a few seats from the Libs due to vote splitting on the left and make significant gains in BC on the anti-Carbon tax vote. BQ loses significance and seats to the Tories as well. Greens don’t even come close to winning a riding. Bill Casey & Andre Arthur return as independents.
Fresh from my triumph last election…there is no way to make crow delicious.
CPC 148
Lib 96 NDP 27
Bloc 37
(IND 0 / GRN 0 —jb)
Turnout 56%
I am going to be slightly cynical and say that not much will change
con 129
lib 98
bq 48
ndp 31
ind 2
green 0
with turnout being 61%
CPC 184
NDP 49
Bloc 38
Lib 35
Ind 2
Green 0
I’m going to be optimistic and bet against a Harper majority, but pessimistic in that major Liberal and NDP gains are unlikely.
Helmethead: 130 (Conservative? —jb)
Milhouse:115 (Liberal? —jb)
Benedict Arnold: 29 (Bloc Quebecois? —jb)
Video Professor: 34 (New Democrats? —jb)
Aunt May: 0 (Greens —jb)
(Independents 0 —jb)
CPC: 162
Lib: 88
NDP: 32
Bloc: 25
Green: 0
Ind: 1
Turnout: 56%
Conservatives - 162
Liberals - 90
Bloc - 35
NDP - 20
Independent - 1
Green - 0
Voter Turnout 63%
I am watching this election coverage and it is no wonder he is happy and easy going…. he is in an enviable situation. This election is going to be an absolute disaster for the Liberals. Dion is an absolutely horrible candidate. The strategy of going so extremely to the left is moronic as it leaves solely the Tories in the centre. The Green Shift may have some merits but certainly not if Dion is it’s spokesperson with seemingly nothing else up his sleeve except to call Harper W Bush. Canadians are inherantly cautious and completely redoing our tax system during times of global economic turmoil when almost ALL of the growth in the coutries economy is coming from primary industry which would be the decimated by rejigging the tax system to punish essentially all aspects of the Canadian economy which are growing. And I voted Green in the Ontario Provincial election and worked for the campign… so I am not saying this with ideological goggles. Dion can’t communicate in English well at all… and I am married to a francophone.
This is a long post but I am stating this early. The Liberals are going to be decimated this election. The only thing they have going for them is that they are the normal logical centre party and should have the left unite behind them to keep Harper from a Majority. But this will only work if Dion can actually seem like a winner… in the next 2 weeks I predict he will not do so and actually seem worse as the country begins to know him better. (Why after 2 years as leader of the Liberals does no body know him except from Harper attack ads? Dion said this himself today!) They don’t know him because he is a horrid politician. The left will unite under Layton with the Greens losing votes after polling in double digits on election day to the NDP and many liberals in Ontario voting NDP to try to keep out a majority Tory government.
Conservatives: 164 45% of pop vote
New Democrats: 64 24%
Liberals: 45 16%
Bloc Quebecois: 35 8%
Greens: 0 6%
Independents: 0 1%
Voter Turnout: 64%
Liberals lose a ton in Ontario as the NDP win many of the traditionally liberal urban ridings in southern Ontario and the GTA. The liberals get few left votes in BC as they go to NDP and Green party and the Tories win some left ridings in BC as the vote is split. Tories also win some left ridings in Toronto due to vote splitting. Dion is a disaster in Quebec and the Liberals only get a handful of seats in Montreal with the Tories talking over half of Quebec.
Conservatives: 152
Liberals: 79
New Democrats: 39
Bloc Quebecois: 37
Independents: 1
Greens: 0
Voter Turnout: 63.5%
Conservatives: 166
Liberals: 88
Bloc Quebecois: 38
New Democrats: 16
Greens: 0
Independents: 0
Voter Turnout: 66%
Hi James,
My prediction is that Liberals will melt-down more than predicted this election (especially in Ontario). The Bloc will continue to wither on the vine. The NDP will maintain their base. The Tory’s will hold the majority.
Conservatives: 161
Liberals: 85
Bloc Quebecois 32
New Democrats: 29
Greens: 0
Independents: 1
61% Voter turn out.
Eeeek, kinda depressing, well, here is my guess:
Liberals: 135
Conservatives: 98
BQ: 38
NDP: 34
Green: 2
Ind: 1
Turn out: 60%
Conservatives: 148
Liberals: 90
BQ: 42
NDP: 27
Green: 0
Independent: 1
Voter turnout: 58%, to be the lowest ever.
Conservatives: 155
Liberals: 82
Bloc Quebecois: 38
NDP: 32
Green Party: 1
Ind: 0
Turnout: 43%
Conservatives 149
Liberals 88
Bloc 40
NDP 28
Green 2
Independant 1
Turnout: 52%
Not what I want but what I expect.
Cons: 130
Libs: 109
Bloc: 42
NDP: 25
IND: 2
Green: sorry, please play again
i don’t expect huge changes. Libs and Cons will split the seats i expect the Bloc to lose and the Liberals will take some seats back from the NDP (due to the mounting Harperphobia). the Dippers will make some gains in Quebec, tho.
(also, hi! longtime reader, first time commenter)
(welcome! —jb)
Conservatives: 129
Liberals: 112
Bloc Quebecois: 32
New Democrats: 35
Greens: 0
Independents: 0
Voter Turnout: 53%
Conservatives: 157
Liberals: 84
Bloc Quebecois: 35
New Democrats: 30
Greens: 2
Independents: 0
Voter Turnout: 64%
Conservatives: 154
Liberals: 79
Bloc Quebecois: 39
NDP: 34
Green Party: 2
Ind: 0
Turnout: 48%
The Greens could be the dark horse and get a few more. So far, the Libs are sucking wind…
Seeing as how I won a copy of the AMAZING BOOK THE UNWRITTEN GIRL last time, which my whole family enjoyed and are waiting on pins for the movie to come out…..I guess I better weigh in on this one too…..
Lets start at the bottom…. Ind. - 1 - It’s what won it for me last time…..
Green - 3. I expect a few more voters will be tired of the other options on the environment side.
Bloc - 31 - The shine is off on the BQ and Quebecors want more national representation.
NDP - 49 - leaps and bounds my friends, tired Liberals who won’t vote Conservative.
Liberal - 68 - Into the tank they go. Face it, they’re friggin broke and won’t be able to run a decent campaign. After paying lawsuits, this election, and an upcoming leadership debate, they might have to find another country to harrase.
Conservatives - 156 - Children dancing in the streets, sunny days all year and light rains every night. Money falling from the sky…….OH HAPPY DAYS !!!!
Conservatives 142
Liberals 100
NDP 29
BQ 36
Green 0
Turnout: 60%
CPC: 151
Lib: 70
NDP: 47
BQ: 39
Ind: 1
Grn: 0
Turnout: 51%
I think Dion is going to come off flat in debates — and with no money to spend… no chance for the Libs this round. More votes for Jack means the Conservatives get a few extra seats at the libs expense, and some BQ erosion helps as well. No Green. And Gary McHale is not the independent who wins.
cons 142
libs 98
ndp 22
bloq 44
green 0
ind 2
voter turnout 55%
CPC: 142
Lib: 100
Bloc: 34
NDP: 29
Ind: 2
Green: 1
Voter turnout: 56%
Conservatives gain ground, but what looks like a majority in the last week falls short as enough Quebecois decide to stick with the Bloc and Ontarians and Atlantic Canadians go for the Liberals.
Greens break through and win May’s seat.