My apologies for the lateness of this, but the numbers took longer to tabulate due to the higher than expected participation rate on election day. Guess we don't have a problem with turnout here, do we?
I've tabulated the results of the election pool. There included below but won't be considered final for another 72 hours, to give you all time to check my math and bring ommissions to my attention. So, if there are no challenges between now and Saturday at noon, we have our winners below.
For entries, I looked in the comment fields of my two posts on my website and my three posts on Blogs Canada Elections Group Blog. I noticed that there were predictions on other websites, and GenX came very close, but I could only accept those predictions made in the comments section of my posts. Barring meddling by myself or Jim Elve (unlikely), this was the only way I could be sure that nobody came back and "adjusted" things. I remember Dave Barry's famous SuperBowl prediction. :-)
Every entrant started with 100 points and lost a point for every seat per party they were off. They also lost ten points for each incorrect prediction of party placement. With that in mind, I'm pleased to announce that the winner is Ramesh Rajball.
36 | Rajball, Ramesh |
28 | M, Ian |
26 | Coleclough, Cliff |
26 | Lenny |
24 | Gspot, Kim |
24 | Martin, James |
18 | Declan |
18 | Spicer, Andrew |
12 | Till, Larry |
10 | Schotte, Jan |
6 | Smith, Bob |
-8 | Wilson, Michael |
-10 | Jennie |
-12 | Brennan, Kevin |
-12 | Gillespie, Ian |
-16 | Bow, James |
-16 | Cleep, Sarah |
-20 | Roth, Allison |
-20 | TalkCanada, Don |
-22 | POGGE |
-26 | King, Katie |
-30 | Bouche, Claude |
-34 | Higgins, Brad |
-38 | Ramson, Bart |
-40 | RevMod, Don |
-44 | Burns, James |
-46 | Bow, Eric |
-75 | Lele, Amod |
-120 | Derwin |
-152 | McGillivray, Peter |
-204 | B, Tom |
-228 | Sorenson, Erik |
The results break down as follows:
FINAL RESULTS: | 135 | 1 | 99 | 2 | 54 | 3 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | ||||||
Particip. | Pse | LIB | CON | BQ | NDP | GRN | IND | TOT | St Pen | Pce Pen | Tot Pen | Fin Scr | Particip. | ||||||
B, Tom | 1 | 75 | 2 | 144 | 1 | 55 | 3 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 122 | 30 | -152 | ||
B, Tom | LR | 75 | 2 | 144 | 1 | 55 | 3 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 122 | 30 | -152 | -204 | B, Tom |
Bouche, Claude | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Bouche, Claude | 2 | 106 | 2 | 120 | 1 | 57 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 60 | 30 | -90 | -30 | Bouche, Claude |
Bow, Eric | 1 | 134 | 1 | 87 | 2 | 51 | 3 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 34 | 10 | -44 | ||
Bow, Eric | 2 | 111 | 2 | 122 | 1 | 48 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 62 | 40 | -102 | -46 | Bow, Eric |
Bow, James | 1 | 140 | 1 | 81 | 2 | 60 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 38 | 10 | -48 | ||
Bow, James | 2 | 102 | 1 | 98 | 2 | 60 | 3 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | 68 | 0 | -68 | -16 | Bow, James |
Brennan, Kevin | 1 | 158 | 1 | 89 | 2 | 46 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 46 | 10 | -56 | ||
Brennan, Kevin | LR | 158 | 1 | 89 | 2 | 46 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 46 | 10 | -56 | -12 | Brennan, Kevin |
Burns, James | 1 | 126 | 1 | 92 | 2 | 45 | 3 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 52 | 20 | -72 | ||
Burns, James | 2 | 126 | 1 | 92 | 2 | 45 | 3 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 52 | 20 | -72 | -44 | Burns, James |
Cleep, Sarah | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Cleep, Sarah | 2 | 107 | 2 | 113 | 1 | 58 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | 56 | 20 | -76 | -16 | Cleep, Sarah |
Coleclough, Cliff | 1 | 130 | 1 | 95 | 2 | 55 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 20 | 20 | -40 | ||
Coleclough, Cliff | 2 | 124 | 1 | 108 | 2 | 54 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 24 | 10 | -34 | 26 | Coleclough, Cliff |
Declan | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Declan | 2 | 114 | 1 | 113 | 2 | 56 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 308 | 42 | 0 | -42 | 18 | Declan |
Derwin | 1 | 108 | 1 | 91 | 2 | 50 | 4 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 80 | 30 | -110 | ||
Derwin | LR | 108 | 1 | 91 | 2 | 50 | 4 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 80 | 30 | -110 | -120 | Derwin |
Gillespie, Ian | ;;DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Gillespie, Ian | 2 | 109 | 2 | 113 | 1 | 55 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | 52 | 20 | -72 | -12 | Gillespie, Ian |
Gspot, Kim | 1 | 131 | 1 | 90 | 2 | 56 | 3 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 28 | 10 | -38 | ||
Gspot, Kim | LR | 131 | 1 | 90 | 2 | 56 | 3 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 28 | 10 | -38 | 24 | Gspot, Kim |
Higgins, Brad | 2 | 113 | 2 | 125 | 1 | 54 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 54 | 40 | -94 | ||
Higgins, Brad | DNP | -40 | -34 | Higgins, Brad | |||||||||||||||
Jennie | 2 | 110 | 2 | 116 | 1 | 56 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | 50 | 20 | -70 | ||
Jennie | DNP | -40 | -10 | Jennie | |||||||||||||||
King, Katie | 2 | 102 | 2 | 121 | 1 | 57 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 308 | 66 | 20 | -86 | ||
King, Katie | DNP | -40 | -26 | King, Katie | |||||||||||||||
Lele, Amod | 1 | 81 | 2 | 138 | 1 | 54 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 301 | 103 | 40 | -143 | ||
Lele, Amod | 2 | 120 | 1 | 110 | 2 | 53 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 308 | 32 | 0 | -32 | -75 | Lele, Amod |
Lenny | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Lenny | 2 | 124 | 1 | 108 | 2 | 54 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 24 | 10 | -34 | 26 | Lenny |
M, Ian | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
M, Ian | 2 | 128 | 1 | 102 | 2 | 51 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 22 | 10 | -32 | 28 | M, Ian |
Martin, James | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Martin, James | 2 | 119 | 1 | 105 | 2 | 52 | 3 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | 36 | 0 | -36 | 24 | Martin, James |
McGillivray, Peter | 1 | 98 | 2 | 100 | 1 | 53 | 4 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 308 | 76 | 50 | -126 | ||
McGillivray, Peter | LR | 98 | 2 | 100 | 1 | 53 | 4 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 308 | 76 | 50 | -126 | -152 | McGillivray, Peter |
POGGE | 1 | 130 | 1 | 85 | 2 | 57 | 3 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 40 | 20 | -60 | ||
POGGE | 2 | 115 | 1 | 106 | 2 | 55 | 3 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 42 | 20 | -62 | -22 | POGGE |
Rajball, Ramesh | 1 | 137 | 1 | 89 | 2 | 57 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 22 | 10 | -32 | ||
Rajball, Ramesh | LR | 137 | 1 | 89 | 2 | 57 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 22 | 10 | -32 | 36 | Rajball, Ramesh |
Ramson, Bart | 1 | 123 | 1 | 100 | 2 | 55 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 26 | 10 | -36 | ||
Ramson, Bart | 2 | 105 | 2 | 121 | 1 | 56 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 62 | 40 | -102 | -38 | Ramson, Bart |
RevMod, Don | 1 | 161 | 1 | 72 | 2 | 52 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 60 | 10 | -70 | ||
RevMod, Don | 2 | 161 | 1 | 72 | 2 | 52 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 60 | 10 | -70 | -40 | RevMod, Don |
Roth, Allison | 1 | 123 | 1 | 94 | 2 | 52 | 3 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 40 | 20 | -60 | ||
Roth, Allison | LR | 123 | 1 | 94 | 2 | 52 | 3 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 40 | 20 | -60 | -20 | Roth, Allison |
Schotte, Jan | DNP | -40 | |||||||||||||||||
Schotte, Jan | 2 | 121 | 1 | 97 | 2 | 50 | 3 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 308 | 40 | 10 | -50 | 10 | Schotte, Jan |
Smith, Bob | 1 | 148 | 1 | 76 | 2 | 55 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 48 | 10 | -58 | ||
Smith, Bob | 2 | 134 | 1 | 95 | 2 | 47 | 3 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 26 | 10 | -36 | 6 | Smith, Bob |
Sorenson, Erik | 1 | 69 | 2 | 159 | 1 | 55 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 134 | 30 | -164 | ||
Sorenson, Erik | 2 | 69 | 2 | 159 | 1 | 55 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 134 | 30 | -164 | -228 | Sorenson, Erik |
Spicer, Andrew | 1 | 138 | 1 | 100 | 2 | 47 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 16 | 10 | -26 | ||
Spicer, Andrew | 2 | 116 | 1 | 113 | 2 | 51 | 3 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 46 | 10 | -56 | 18 | Spicer, Andrew |
Talk Canada, Don | 1 | 125 | 1 | 111 | 2 | 49 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 32 | 10 | -42 | ||
Talk Canada, Don | 2 | 113 | 2 | 119 | 1 | 53 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 48 | 30 | -78 | -20 | Talk Canada, Don |
Till, Larry | 2 | 118 | 1 | 98 | 2 | 72 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 38 | 10 | -48 | ||
Till, Larry | DNP | -40 | 12 | Till, Larry | |||||||||||||||
Wilson, Michael | 1 | 159 | 1 | 78 | 2 | 45 | 3 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 308 | 62 | 10 | -72 | ||
Wilson, Michael | 2 | 121 | 1 | 112 | 2 | 50 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 308 | 36 | 0 | -36 | -8 | Wilson, Michael |
Note that Andrew Spicer receives the ceremonial honour of having the lowest single seat penalty, with his phase 1 prediction.
Remember, those who participated in round one but didn't participate in round two were deemed to have said "Let it ride!" and their first round predictions were used as second round predictions as well. These are indicated with the label "LR" in the phase column. Those who only participated in the second round were deemed not to have participated in the first round (indicated with the label "DNP" in the phase column) and were assessed with a forty point penalty.
As it turns out, that penalty was rather low, as plenty of people who did not participate in the first round were still competitive because their second round picks were close to reality. But I think it the penalty was fair.
Ramesh won because, in the first round, he made a prediction that was very close to the final results. He was two seats off the Liberal total, ten seats off the Conservative total, three seats off the BQ total and six seats off from the NDP total. He did not predict any independent seats, so he loses a point there, for a total count of twenty-two points -- an extremely low number to have taken off one's original score of 100, as it turns out. In placement, he correctly guessed the position of the four mainstream party, but failed to predict that an independent candidate would place, granting him ten points on his place score. His first round pick thus had a penalty of only thirty-two points. He then let his first round prediction ride, so his total guess penalty was 64 points, leaving him with 36 points, and atop the pack.
Ian M did not participate in the first round, and so was assessed a forty point penalty. However, his second round tally was quite accurate, with his predictions only 22 seats off the final totals and only one party placed incorrectly (his failure to predict seats for independents). Cliff won much the same way as Ramesh did, and Lenny tied him using the same technique as Ian M.
So, unless there are any protests in the next 72 hours or so (you're all welcome to check my math), Jim Elve will be contacting the winners to send them their fabulous prizes.
It's interesting to note the collective wisdom of all of these seat predictions. By averaging out the guesses of all the participants, we end up with the following:
Liberal - 119
Conservative - 104
Bloc Quebecois - 53
New Democrats - 30
Greens - 0
Independents - 0
Vacant - 2
So, together we were way off. The Conservative and BQ predictions are fairly close, but we've all seriously overpredicted Liberal weakness and NDP strength.
Congratulations to the winners! You are true political sages.