The Second Bow. James Bow. Federal Election Pool


(Update): We have a prize! Sean McCormick of Digiteyesed Photography has kindly donated a 11x14 fine art print to the first prize winner of this pool. The person who wins needs only to pick out the print the want and Sean will ship it to them.

Now that the election has been called, it’s time for that grand old tradition, dating all the way back to 2004: the Bow. James Bow Federal Election Pool.

We had a good time with the last election pool, and while there are no prizes on offer just yet (that may change; donations are welcome), I’m more than happy to do this again, since guessing results is fun — to me, at least.

The rules are the same as before, albeit with a couple of tweaks. Between now and the last week of the campaign, simply write down your prediction of how many seats each party will get. And then, during the last week of the campaign (I’ll announce when the election pool has entered phase two), write down your revised guess. This two-step process is to help nullify the advantage some people have in waiting until the last minute to guess who’s going to win over those who make their predictions before the campaign has really started.

You will be scored as follows: each entrant will start with 500 points (before it was 100) and will lose a point for every seat per party they are off. Each entrant will also lose twenty-five points for each incorrect position of party placement. If you say that independent candidates will obtain seats and none do, that’s a twenty-five point penalty. If you say that the Green Party does NOT obtain seats and they do, that’s also a twenty-five point penalty.

And those who wait until phase two to make their predictions are still welcome to make their predictions. They will, however, have to overcome a 100 point penalty for failing to participate in round one (before it was 40 points). Those who participate in phase one but don’t participate in phase two will be deemed to have elected to “let it ride”, so their phase one guess also becomes their phase two guess. Participants from phase one can explicitly tell me to “let it ride”.

Finally, fifty bonus points will be awarded to the individual who comes the closest to predicting the turnout of the coming election, without going over. Please use whole numbers only in predicting. So, if a person predicts 58% and another predicts 59%, and the turnout is 58.7%, the person who predicted a 58% turnout gets the extra points. Ties get the 50 bonus points divided up.

The individual with the most points wins, with special honours awarded to the individual who comes the closest, among the two guesses, to guessing the final correct seat totals.

To participate in phase one, please make your predictions below in the comments section of this blog post, or at the crosspost at Blogs Canada. Happy guessing!

And let’s start with my prediction:

Liberals: 111
Conservatives: 94
Bloc Quebecois: 60
New Democrats: 43
Green Party: 0 (sadly)
Independents: 0
Turnout: 55% of eligible voters.

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