The Second Bow. James Bow. Federal Election Pool - RESULTS!

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It gives me great pleasure to award the top prize in the 2006 Bow. James Bow Federal Election pool to…

HerringChoker!

HerringChoker placed the following prediction on my blog on November 29, 2005 at 3:27 p.m.

Conservatives - 125 Liberals - 98 Bloc Quebecois - 60 NDP - 24 Independent - 1 Turnout - 58%

He did not make a second round prediction, so he was deemed to have “let it ride” for the remainder of the campaign.

As I said in the rules, all participants started out with 500 points, and had points taken away for each “mistake”. HerringChoker correctly guesed the final position of each of the four main parties, and he correctly guessed the inclusion of one Independent and no Green Party members, reducing his placement penalty down from 150 to zero. He was only twenty seats off in his guesses for each party’s seat total. Multiply that by two, and his final score comes to a whopping 460, netting him top prize: an 11 x 14 print from Sean McCormick’s Digiteyesed Photography.

We did not receive any donations for additional prizes, so I’ve decided to award the second to fifth place finishers with a signed copy of my young adult fantasy novel, The Unwritten Girl, which is due out in April. The second place finisher will be the individual other than HerringChoker who had the best guess in the first round. The third place finisher will be the individual other than HerringChoker and the second place finisher who had the best guess in the second round. The remaining positions will be determined by overall points.

Here’s a full run-down of the participants and their scores. We had a huge number of people come out to participate in the first round, and fewer came out for round two. I only considered those guesses from individuals who left comments on the relevant posts on my blog or on BlogsCanada’s egroup. Guesses made solely on your own blog didn’t count.

Second place goes to DazzlinDino of the Blogging Party of Canada. On November 30, 2005 at 8:42 p.m., he made the following prediction on my blog:

Liberals : 104 Conservatives : 109 BQ : 61 NDP : 33 Independant : 1 Turnout - 68%, I think it might even be higher, pretty sure the scandals may have brought the importance of voting to a few more people—.

DazzlinDino also correctly guessed the placement of the parties and the emergence of the independent candidate. He was only ten seats off of HerringChoker’s guess on actual seat totals, giving him a final score of 440, making him second overall in terms of points.

Third place goes to J. Kelly Nestruck, arts reporter for the National Post, who on 11:20 a.m. of Election Day said:

Alright, here’s my guess: Cons: 128 Libs: 94 Bloc: 57 NDP: 28 Ind: 1; Voter turnout up a tad to 63%

Again, Kelly is blessed with a placement penalty of zero, and he’s only twenty seats off the official count. Only his refusal to participate in the first round, thus accepting a 100 point penalty, kept him from being tied with HerringChoker for first place overall. Instead, in terms of points, he places sixteenth.

Fourth place goes to Aeolus at Venteux - Windy Weather who participated in the first round with a guess of “Lib. 104, Con. 117, NDP 27, BQ 60, Other 0 Turnout: 58%” and who let that prediction ride into the second round. He is third place in points overall with a final score of 410. He was just twenty seats off the official count, but suffered because he failed to include the emergence of the independent candidate. He comes in third overall on points.

And, finally, fifth place goes to Anonalogue, fourth place overall on points at 406. He participated in phase one at BlogsCanada with a guess of “Conservative - 121, Liberal - 96, NDP - 32, Bloc - 59, Turnout: 61%”. He was twenty-two seats off the official count, and suffered a 50 point penalty for failing to guess the independent seat.

The official turnout, according to Elections Canada, is 64.9%, although that could still rise to 65%. I’m closing the contest here, however, and awarding the points accordingly. The 50 point bonus was not a factor in this contest, as it was divided between three contestants: Owin at Owinstheories, Mustafa Hirji and Debbie at Prattleondebbie, who all guessed a turnout of 64%. My father and Jack Cluth guessed a turnout of 65% which, if it had bourne out, would have launched my father into third place on points, fourth place overall.

Congratulations to all of the winners and thank you to all of the contestants for participating. I hope you had fun. The final standings are below:

OVERALL RESULTSScoreBonusFinal
Herringchoker460460
DazzlinDino440440
Aeolus at Venteux410410
Anonalogue406406
Michael Slavitch402402
Matt Mitschke400400
Scott Blurton394394
Bill Williams394394
K Ontheleftside394394
MacDuff390390
Josh Gould386386
Eric Bow386386
The Hack386386
Owin at Owinstheories36616.67382.67
Don at TalkCanada382382
J Kelly Nestruck380380
RedToryBlueLiberal Glen378378
davey at November 28, 2005 09:18 PM378378
Erik Sorenson378378
Larry 11/29/2005 5:41:45 PM 370370
DECLAN366366
Roby at Genzeldot ca363363
B Wylie 362362
Matt Arnold361361
Teddy at Tblog358358
CalgaryGrit351351
Don at RevMod347347
AVERAGE VOTES345345
Greg at Sinister Thoughts343343
Andrew Spicer338338
Trent Stanley338338
Ned Noodle335335
Alejandro Bustos335335
Mustafa Hirji31816.67334.67
Dan-O334334
Peter McGillvray334334
Neil at December 1, 2005 02:28 PM332332
Dave Mathers330330
Christian Conservative324324
Jack Cluth322322
chenmau at December 1, 2005 10:05 PM320320
Candace at WakinguponPlanetX316316
Berbard McGraw310310
James Bow309309
Brent O302302
Matthew I Heart Music300300
Mark at 2me1 at qlink.queensudot ca296296
Cycles2k296296
Cliff Coleclough285285
Western Willie282282
Dog Breath Canada276276
Matt at December 2, 2005 12:28 AM274274
Millergang270270
Andrew at alukaszewicz at gmaildot com270270
BCTory270270
Amit Dubey266266
Darren Barefoot266266
Montrealer258258
Norbert Langelier258258
Deanna at November 29, 2005 02:26 AM258258
Steve at December 1, 2005 07:19 PM258258
Bluenosedave256256
Kirk Schmidt256256
Anthony Jones at ajones at corruptincdot com254254
Stephen Jenuth254254
Ed at November 28, 2005 10:39 PM254254
Philly C254254
Jason at Canadian Discourses250250
Koby250250
Raf at Arkhangel248248
Jimmy Jenga Grenke246246
Tim BlogsCanada 11/28/2005 7:38:32 PM246246
Mike Rational Reasons244244
Brian242242
James Koole242242
Debbie at Prattleondebbie22416.67240.67
Richard at December 1, 2005 08:08 PM238238
Josh at Torontoist218218
RP at December 28, 2005 06:11 PM214214
Robert McLelland210210
Yoda210210
Leftie Banker210210
Coyote at thecoyotehowls210210
Nazar206206
Craig at cmckie at dowcodot com198198
Thursday at PoliteCompany194194
Alan at GenXat40168168
abzul at November 28, 2005 10:57 PM168168
Jason Cherniak154154
Dan Kukwa150150
Megan 11/29/2005 3:45:06 PM148148
mr at November 28, 2005 10:33 PM146146
BlueBloggingSoapbox146146
Richard at rgmurray at gmaildot com132132
Shakeyvoice130130
Jay Currie00

Note: the average predictions were as follows:

Round One: Lib 110; Con 107; BQ 59; NDP 30; GRN 0; IND 0; Turnout 58%
Round Two: Lib 104; Con 114; BQ 59; NDP 29; GRN 0; IND 0; Turnout 59%
Fifty-four seats off of official count
One hundred points position penalty
Final Score: 346

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