It gives me great pleasure to award the top prize in the 2006 Bow. James Bow Federal Election pool to…
HerringChoker placed the following prediction on my blog on November 29, 2005 at 3:27 p.m.
Conservatives - 125 Liberals - 98 Bloc Quebecois - 60 NDP - 24 Independent - 1 Turnout - 58%
He did not make a second round prediction, so he was deemed to have “let it ride” for the remainder of the campaign.
As I said in the rules, all participants started out with 500 points, and had points taken away for each “mistake”. HerringChoker correctly guesed the final position of each of the four main parties, and he correctly guessed the inclusion of one Independent and no Green Party members, reducing his placement penalty down from 150 to zero. He was only twenty seats off in his guesses for each party’s seat total. Multiply that by two, and his final score comes to a whopping 460, netting him top prize: an 11 x 14 print from Sean McCormick’s Digiteyesed Photography.
We did not receive any donations for additional prizes, so I’ve decided to award the second to fifth place finishers with a signed copy of my young adult fantasy novel, The Unwritten Girl, which is due out in April. The second place finisher will be the individual other than HerringChoker who had the best guess in the first round. The third place finisher will be the individual other than HerringChoker and the second place finisher who had the best guess in the second round. The remaining positions will be determined by overall points.
Here’s a full run-down of the participants and their scores. We had a huge number of people come out to participate in the first round, and fewer came out for round two. I only considered those guesses from individuals who left comments on the relevant posts on my blog or on BlogsCanada’s egroup. Guesses made solely on your own blog didn’t count.
Second place goes to DazzlinDino of the Blogging Party of Canada. On November 30, 2005 at 8:42 p.m., he made the following prediction on my blog:
Liberals : 104 Conservatives : 109 BQ : 61 NDP : 33 Independant : 1 Turnout - 68%, I think it might even be higher, pretty sure the scandals may have brought the importance of voting to a few more people—.
DazzlinDino also correctly guessed the placement of the parties and the emergence of the independent candidate. He was only ten seats off of HerringChoker’s guess on actual seat totals, giving him a final score of 440, making him second overall in terms of points.
Third place goes to J. Kelly Nestruck, arts reporter for the National Post, who on 11:20 a.m. of Election Day said:
Alright, here’s my guess: Cons: 128 Libs: 94 Bloc: 57 NDP: 28 Ind: 1; Voter turnout up a tad to 63%
Again, Kelly is blessed with a placement penalty of zero, and he’s only twenty seats off the official count. Only his refusal to participate in the first round, thus accepting a 100 point penalty, kept him from being tied with HerringChoker for first place overall. Instead, in terms of points, he places sixteenth.
Fourth place goes to Aeolus at Venteux - Windy Weather who participated in the first round with a guess of “Lib. 104, Con. 117, NDP 27, BQ 60, Other 0 Turnout: 58%” and who let that prediction ride into the second round. He is third place in points overall with a final score of 410. He was just twenty seats off the official count, but suffered because he failed to include the emergence of the independent candidate. He comes in third overall on points.
And, finally, fifth place goes to Anonalogue, fourth place overall on points at 406. He participated in phase one at BlogsCanada with a guess of “Conservative - 121, Liberal - 96, NDP - 32, Bloc - 59, Turnout: 61%”. He was twenty-two seats off the official count, and suffered a 50 point penalty for failing to guess the independent seat.
The official turnout, according to Elections Canada, is 64.9%, although that could still rise to 65%. I’m closing the contest here, however, and awarding the points accordingly. The 50 point bonus was not a factor in this contest, as it was divided between three contestants: Owin at Owinstheories, Mustafa Hirji and Debbie at Prattleondebbie, who all guessed a turnout of 64%. My father and Jack Cluth guessed a turnout of 65% which, if it had bourne out, would have launched my father into third place on points, fourth place overall.
Congratulations to all of the winners and thank you to all of the contestants for participating. I hope you had fun. The final standings are below:
|Aeolus at Venteux||410||410|
|Owin at Owinstheories||366||16.67||382.67|
|Don at TalkCanada||382||382|
|J Kelly Nestruck||380||380|
|davey at November 28, 2005 09:18 PM||378||378|
|Larry 11/29/2005 5:41:45 PM||370||370|
|Roby at Genzeldot ca||363||363|
|Teddy at Tblog||358||358|
|Don at RevMod||347||347|
|Greg at Sinister Thoughts||343||343|
|Neil at December 1, 2005 02:28 PM||332||332|
|chenmau at December 1, 2005 10:05 PM||320||320|
|Candace at WakinguponPlanetX||316||316|
|Matthew I Heart Music||300||300|
|Mark at 2me1 at qlink.queensudot ca||296||296|
|Dog Breath Canada||276||276|
|Matt at December 2, 2005 12:28 AM||274||274|
|Andrew at alukaszewicz at gmaildot com||270||270|
|Deanna at November 29, 2005 02:26 AM||258||258|
|Steve at December 1, 2005 07:19 PM||258||258|
|Anthony Jones at ajones at corruptincdot com||254||254|
|Ed at November 28, 2005 10:39 PM||254||254|
|Jason at Canadian Discourses||250||250|
|Raf at Arkhangel||248||248|
|Jimmy Jenga Grenke||246||246|
|Tim BlogsCanada 11/28/2005 7:38:32 PM||246||246|
|Mike Rational Reasons||244||244|
|Debbie at Prattleondebbie||224||16.67||240.67|
|Richard at December 1, 2005 08:08 PM||238||238|
|Josh at Torontoist||218||218|
|RP at December 28, 2005 06:11 PM||214||214|
|Coyote at thecoyotehowls||210||210|
|Craig at cmckie at dowcodot com||198||198|
|Thursday at PoliteCompany||194||194|
|Alan at GenXat40||168||168|
|abzul at November 28, 2005 10:57 PM||168||168|
|Megan 11/29/2005 3:45:06 PM||148||148|
|mr at November 28, 2005 10:33 PM||146||146|
|Richard at rgmurray at gmaildot com||132||132|
Note: the average predictions were as follows:
Round One: Lib 110; Con 107; BQ 59; NDP 30; GRN 0; IND 0; Turnout 58%
Round Two: Lib 104; Con 114; BQ 59; NDP 29; GRN 0; IND 0; Turnout 59%
Fifty-four seats off of official count
One hundred points position penalty
Final Score: 346