Recently, political analyst Gwynne Dyer made a bold prediction regarding the fate of Zimbabwe’s beleaguered dictator, Robert Mugabe. I say bold since the man has survived 27 years in power, including the last seven during which time the economy and the population’s life expectancy halved. By rights he should have been thrown out long ago, but Dyer is certain that the man is at the very, very, nubbly tipped end of his rope:
Three million of Zimbabwe’s 11 million people have fled abroad to seek work, mostly in South Africa. The money they send home is the only reason most Zimbabweans eat at all, since unemployment at home is 80 percent. The average lifespan in the country has halved in 15 years. But the most urgent problem for Mugabe is that his own security forces cannot feed their families because their huge pay raises still cannot keep up with inflation.
If the security forces turn against him, he is finished, so early last month he decreed deep price cuts for all consumer goods and sent the troops out to enforce them. The idea that you cannot simply impose lower prices, he scoffed, is mere “bookish economics.” But if it costs more for bakers to make bread than they get for selling it, then they stop baking.
A month later, the shelves are bare of staple foods like sugar, flour and cooking oil throughout Zimbabwe. Rural people, most of whom fell out of the cash economy some time ago, can scrape by somehow, but people in the urban areas are getting truly desperate.
Mugabe has played his last card, and he will probably be gone by the end of the year.
(link)
This would almost certainly be a good thing, removing the biggest impediment to this country’s prosperity. So I am quite happy to join the Mugabe Death Watch, counting down the time until the country gains its chance for freedom.
However, I cannot help but contemplate how much of a tragically missed opportunity the last seven years of Zimbabwe represents. It wasn’t more than ten years ago when Mugabe could still rightly claim to have liberated his country from an oppressive and racist Rhodisian regime. The economy, while socialist, was still plodding along towards stability. Children were being educated and the citizens were healthy. Despite his autocratic tendencies, Mugabe could have won free and fair elections had they been held. But it’s all squandered, now. In a critical turning point, Mugabe co-identified his wellbeing with that of his country. The lands of white farmers, who were maintaining 80% of the country’s economy, were expropriated and given to friends in rank corruption.
Given what Zimbabwe had achieved up to that point, and given where it is now, South Africa is everything that Zimbabwe isn’t. Amazing to think that, twenty years ago, this situation was reversed.
But it goes to show that defeating the tired old regime is only part of the task. From Rhodesia to Iraq, toppling the government is only part of the struggle — the earliest part. Building the democratic regime that we all want to follow is the long and hard part. And that’s something all participants of the Mugabe Death Watch need to remember.
Further Reading
Welcome back Rhinos!
I’m pleased to welcome the Rhinocerous Party to the Canadian political scene. Leader Brian Salmi managed to get some media attention for the relaunch by suing the federal government for its repealed 1993 law requiring small parties to field at least 50 candidates to be recognized as legitimate parties by Elections Canada. True to Rhino form, Brian has changed his name to Satan so that the tort now reads “Satan Versus Her Majesty.” The Rhinos will also be fielding a candidate in the September 17th by-election in Outremont.
I look forward to more political parody from this party and I wish them well. Until “None of the Above” becomes a valid political choice on our ballots, these guys offer an invaluable service, acting as a safety valve for us to vent our anger on the political process, and reminding us that while politics are serious, politicians should not be taken too seriously.
For my American readers wondering what the heck I’m talking about, check out this excellent summary in Wikipedia.