Right, as of 2:00 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, October 15, Elections Canada has the results as follows:
Conservatives: 143; Liberals: 76; Bloc Quebecois: 50; New Democrats: 37; Independents: 2; Greens: 0 - Turnout, 59.1%
I have calculated the results against the entries to the pool (you can see the full results here) and I’m now ready to announce the winners. And the grand prize winner is… (drumroll please!)…
ELECTRIC MONK!!
On September 7, 2008 at 2:37 p.m., Electric Monk posted the following comment:
CPC: 142; LPC: 85; BQ: 44; NDP: 36; Ind: 1; Grn: 0
Turnout: 61%
This was the best first round prediction of the entire contest. Not only did he get the party placements right, his guesses were only 18 seats off the final results (1 for the Conservative, 9 for the Liberals, 6 for the Bloc, 1 for the NDP and 1 independent). On round two, he was deemed to have said “let it ride”, giving him a total penalty of only 36 points, and a whopping score of 464. Great work, Monk!
In second place comes Dan Arnold of Calgary Grit, who on September 7, 2008 at 12:09 p.m. wrote:
CPC 153; Lib 89; BQ 36; NDP 28; Ind 2; Grn 0
Turnout: 58%
On October 14, 2008 at 11:01 a.m., he revised this guess to the following:
CPC 136; Lib 84; Bloc 49; NDP 37; Ind 2 (Bill Casey and Andre Arthur)
While not far off, the first guess still racked up 46 seat penalty points. The second guess, on the other hand, was much closer, and with only 16 seat penalty points, was the best guess in the game. The two together gave him 438 points, which was good for fifth place. However, he also shared the correct guess on turnout: 58%, compared to the official 59.1%. Nobody else picked a turnout of 59%. Splitting the 50 bonus points in half bulks up Grit’s score to 463, just one shy of the Monk!
In third place comes Marc Bernard, who on September 8, 2008 at 11:13 a.m. wrote:
Conservatives: 148; Liberals: 90; BQ: 42; NDP: 27; Green: 0; Independent: 1
Voter turnout: 58%, to be the lowest ever.
He correctly places the parties but significantly overestimates Liberal and Conservative support while significantly underestimating Bloc and NDP support. His seat penalty of 38 and decision to let it ride gives him a score of 424, which would have been good for a seventh place finish, except that he also gave the best guess on turnout, which vaulted him into the winners’ circle with a score of 449. Had Calgary Grit not made as good a guess on turnout, Marc would have been the grand prize winner.
Right behind Marc Bernard in fourth place comes Robert Jago who, at 1:10 p.m. on September 7 posted the following prediction:
Tories: 140; Liberals: 86; BQ: 41; NDP: 40; Ind: 1; Other: 0
Turnout: 53%
His party placement is absolutely correct, and his seat prediction is excellent, being only 26 off. His let his second round prediction ride, giving him a total penalty of 52, and an excellent score of 448.
Tying him for fourth place is none other than Ryan who, on September 7, 2008 at 6:40 p.m., posted the following:
Conservatives: 144; Liberals: 88; Bloc: 40; NDP: 35; Ind: 1
Turnout: 62%
So, those are our top five finishers. A sixth prize was supposed to be awarded to the individual who gave the best guess of the game, but seeing as Calgary Grit has already placed second, our sixth winner is our sixth place finisher, David Campbell who, on September 7, 2008, 6:45 p.m., posted:
Conservative: 142; Liberal: 90; Bloc Quebecois: 38; NDP: 36; Independant:2 (Bll Casey, and Andre Arthur); Green:0
Despite being close on the Conservative and NDP seat totals (and a tip of the hat for correctly guessing who the independent candidates were), he overestimated Liberal support and underestimated Bloc support, giving him 28 penalty points in the first round. Letting it ride gives him a total penalty of 56 for a final score of 444.
Congratulations to all of the winners; I’ll be in touch with you shortly about how to claim your prizes. And, in case you are interested, this is what happens if you average all the guesses:
AVERAGE GUESS - FIRST ROUND
Conservatives: 147; Liberals: 86; Bloc Quebecois: 36; New Democrats: 33; Greens: 1; Independents: 5
AVERAGE GUESS - SECOND ROUND
Conservatives: 146; Liberals 85; Bloc Quebecois: 37; New Democrats: 34; Greens: 1; Independents: 5
It looks like most of us caught the rising fortunes of the Bloc and the NDP, but we all overestimated the Liberals’ support, while underestimating BQ fortunes. The high number of independents is skewed by Andrew Jeanes tongue-in-cheek entry predicting a Rhino government, as posted here. You will also notice that Andrew placed dead last, with a score of -440, but I still appreciated the gesture.
Here are the final standings:
# | NAME | 1st Seat Pen | 2nd Seat Pen | 1st Place Pen | 2nd Place Pen | Subtotal |
1. | Electric Monk | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 464 |
2. | Calgary Grit (plus 25 bonus pts) | 46 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 463 |
3. | Marc Bernard (plus 25 bonus pts) | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 449 |
4. | Robert Jago | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 448 |
5. | Ryan | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 448 |
6. | David Campbell | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 444 |
7. | Damian P. | 32 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 436 |
8. | Wilson | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 424 |
9. | Le Politico | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 424 |
10. | Swift | 40 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 420 |
11. | Gord | 43 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 414 |
12. | Tim | 44 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 412 |
13. | Mary C | 44 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 412 |
14. | MrSinister Greg | 48 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 404 |
15. | P. Drost | 54 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 392 |
16. | Don Macfarlane | 56 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 388 |
17. | David Janes | 61 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 378 |
18. | Mark E | 62 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 376 |
19. | Geoff Mansfield | 66 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 368 |
20. | Dyson | 66 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 368 |
21. | Richard Peregrino | 68 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 364 |
22. | Eric (Not Bow) | 38 | 30 | 25 | 50 | 357 |
23. | Jay Currie | 50 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 350 |
24. | Alex Abboud | 50 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 350 |
25. | The Hack | 28 | 28 | 50 | 50 | 344 |
26. | Mike at Rational Reasons | 32 | 32 | 50 | 50 | 336 |
27. | AVERAGE VOTES | 36 | 32 | 25 | 75 | 332 |
28. | Eric Bow | 40 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 330 |
29. | Roby | 36 | 36 | 50 | 50 | 328 |
30. | Toulin Says | 38 | 38 | 50 | 50 | 324 |
31. | Catelli | 38 | 38 | 50 | 50 | 324 |
32. | Deanna | 66 | 66 | 25 | 25 | 318 |
33. | Andrew Ian Dodge | 70 | 70 | 25 | 25 | 310 |
34. | Mustafa Hirji | 118 | 24 | 50 | 0 | 308 |
35. | Kevin Spiritinthevillage | 48 | 48 | 50 | 50 | 304 |
36. | Moebius | 52 | 52 | 50 | 50 | 296 |
37. | Whalemusic | 32 | 32 | 75 | 75 | 286 |
38. | James Bow | 62 | 62 | 50 | 50 | 276 |
39. | Joel Kropf | 62 | 62 | 50 | 50 | 276 |
40. | NAPatriot | 92 | 92 | 25 | 25 | 266 |
41. | Ennkidu | 74 | 74 | 50 | 50 | 252 |
42. | KVER | 60 | 60 | 75 | 75 | 230 |
43. | Saskboy | 86 | 86 | 50 | 50 | 228 |
44. | Jason Cherniak | 90 | 90 | 50 | 50 | 220 |
45. | PaulM | 72 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 206 |
46. | Candace | 50 | 94 | 50 | 100 | 206 |
47. | Gone Fishing | 76 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 198 |
48. | Owin Lambeck | 78 | 78 | 75 | 75 | 194 |
49. | DazzlinDino | 56 | 56 | 100 | 100 | 188 |
50. | Dillon | 106 | 106 | 50 | 50 | 188 |
51. | Jeff - Ontario | 94 | 94 | 75 | 75 | 162 |
52. | The Music God | 118 | 70 | 100 | 75 | 137 |
53. | Josh Cognoscente | 87 | 87 | 100 | 100 | 126 |
54. | R Walker | 96 | 96 | 100 | 100 | 108 |
55. | PeterC | 122 | 122 | 100 | 100 | 56 |
56. | Andrew Jeanes | 320 | 320 | 150 | 150 | -440 |
Thanks to everyone who participated. I hope you all had fun!