The photograph on the right of Doug Ford was taken in 2014 by Eunice Kim and is used in accordance with their Creative Commons License.
So, we're having an election this month in Ontario. Premier Doug Ford called it on January 28, and we go to the polls on February 27.
Obstensibly, Doug Ford called this election to act like Captain Canada and fight back against anticipated punitive tariffs leveled by a demented American president intent on annexing us. I must admit, I quite enjoyed seeing the conservative Ford talking smack about Trump and Musk. I applauded his punches, such as pulling American alcohol off of Ontario's shelves and cancelling his Starlink contract for satellite internet service across the province.
But then Trump blinked. Or, rather, followed through on his pattern of talking big, then backing down and claiming victory. His tariffs are supposedly on hold for 30 days, obstensibly in response to Canadian moves along the border that Trudeau largely agreed to when Biden was president. Ford has been left high and dry with no real issues to campaign on, save for a cockamamie plan to build a road tunnel beneath Highway 401 from Mississauga to Pickering. He even backed out of his plan to cancel the Starlink contract -- though, to be fair, he could argue that his move had its intended effect of stopping the tariffs, and cancelling signed contracts is expensive. Still, I would contrast Ford's response to that of Quebec, which is continuing to pursue its cancellation of its Starlink contract and is working with the federal government to set up a Canadian-made satellite internet system, but I digress.
You see, Ford now has a problem: the one excuse that made his early election call make any sense has been removed. And if people were paying attention, this wasn't actually his real reason for going to the polls early. Ford's been signalling his desire to hold an early election for months, now, long before Trump retook the White House.
On June 2, 2022, Doug Ford and his Conservatives won a four-year majority mandate in Queen's Park with around 40.5% of the vote. By tradition and, I believe, by attempts to legislate a fairer electoral process, that mandate lasts until June 2026. Ford's Conservatives continue to hold the majority of seats at Queen's Park and there are no serious challenges to Ford's leadership. Even when he had Trump's tariffs as an excuse to call a snap election, the moves he took during the campaign were things that he could have done without holding an expensive and unnecessary early election. So, why do we need to spend $189 million to go to the polls now in the dead of winter rather than in June 2026?
The only reason that makes sense is that Ford fears the result he'll face if he waits until the election date that tradition dictates.
Months ago, when Ford started considering calling an early election, he was looking at a situation in Ottawa where Trudeau seemed likely to lose big to the federal Conservative Party under Pierre Pollievre. History suggests that Ontario voters tend to hedge their bets when it comes to their elections. When a Conservative government sits in Ottawa, Ontario voters tend to vote Liberals into Queen's Park, and vice versa.
In summary: Ford is calling an election now because he thinks he's going to lose in 2026. So my question is, why should I vote for a premier who feels that he's already lost?
Dare Ford run on his record? When he was elected, he campaigned about stopping hallway healthcare in our hospitals and eliminating a persistent deficit run by the previous Liberal government. After seven years of Ford being in charge, the deficit is roughly the same, and our overstressed emergency rooms continue to be overstressed. The solution there is simple: invest more money in emergency room staff, nurses and doctors, but Ford would rather waste billions of dollars digging a hole beneath a highway.
As our cost of living increases and rents go through the roof, rather than spend money building decent and affordable housing where people need it, he tries to sell off flood-prone Greenbelt land to developers to create McMansions on the perphery of our cities. Instead of ensuring that our public transit is properly funded and in a state of good repair, he wastes money on unnecessary highways that won't see traffic for years. He attempts to bribe us with our own money in the form of tax rebates rather than spend that money tackling the issues that matter. And with this early and unnecessary election, he's moved to try and secure his own future at the expense of everybody else's.
It's worth noting that the last time an Ontario premier with a huge majority mandate called an election over a year before they had to, the result was the unexpected election of Ontario's only New Democratic government, even though said government (Liberal) went into the election with a 10-point advantage in the opinion polls.
Might something similar happen this time? Only time will tell. But it's worth remembering that Ontario voters have sniffed out self-serving premiers before, and we are quite willing to punish them for their arrogance.